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A Bayesian Approach to Zero-Modified Poisson Model for the Prediction of Match Outcomes: An Application to the 2012-2013 La Liga Season

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Publicado em Fri Mar 27 08:25:07 GMT-03:00 2015
Responsáveis:  Gustavo Blengini Faria
Palestrantes:  Adriano Kamimura Suzuki
Grupo:  CeMEAI

In any sports competition, strong interest is devoted to the knowledge on the team that will be champion. The result of a match, the chance of a team being either qualified for a specific tournament, or relegated, the best attack and defense are also subjects of interest. This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for modeling the number of goals scored by a team based on Zero-Modified Poisson distribution. Inference procedures and computational simulation studies are also discussed. The proposed methodology was applied to the 2012-13 La Liga and the results were compared with those of Poisson model through the De Finetti measure and percentage of correct predictions.